Friday, March 23, 2012
Team Macro Man really are at a loss for anything interesting to write about so fall back on one of their favorites - 20 questions, but can't even manage that. So here are 13.
1) Are you looking for a dip to buy on?
a) Yes, a small correction would suit technically before I get in for the big one.
b) No, this is going straight up.
c) No, because this is not going to be a dip, it's really going to tank.
2) Are all your friends looking for a dip to buy on?
a) Yes, but I m sure its still not consensus.
b) Yes, like everyone else.
c) No, I don't have any friends because I don't believe in a dip.
3) Have you any new macro reasons to sell that weren't there (and to be honest were stronger) 2 months ago when prices were 15% cheaper?
a) Chinaeuroperipherlalsunemploymentgreeceportugaliran barfff.
c) This chart says .. NO WE SAID MACRO.
4) Which would you rather be?
a) How you are positioned right now.
b) Long from lower down and not having fought the rally.
c) Only just taking profit on longs and now joining the "it will dippers".
5) Is the current move in peripheral European bonds
a) A sign of something major brewing in Europe.
b) Just a generalised move in global bonds combined with a relaxation of post LTRO purchases.
c) A straw to cling to.
6) What do you do in a quiet market?
a) Stay small long as you know "Never short a quiet market".
b) Whip up a panic using some extraneous factoid about china/Europe and try your best to make it a non-quiet market.
c) Go to lunch.
7) Is this Volatility sell off a sign of
a) A real calm, reflecting that problems have been solved.
b) A new real trade opportunity based on fundamental and technical analysis.
c) Desperation as we have missed this rally so are selling vol for premium.
8) If you are a hedge fund PM your views on MXN are
a) Just own it, its the buy to counter anything you want to sell.
b) Flashing warning signals now your Mum has called suggesting you own MXN as per the article in Good Housekeeping.
c) It's the next fire in a night club.
9) Osborne's UK budget was
a) A way of robbing mediumly well-off pensioners of their above average final salary pensions that have been unthreatened by anything over the past 5 years.
b) A class political manoeuvre.
c) Another excuse for the BBC to interview who ever is worse off (someone always is) and then their mother and blame government cuts.
10) The US takes markets higher everyday after Europe tries to sell it because.
a) They are in the driving seat of growth.
b) The switching from bonds to equities is a long slow glacial move that isn't worth fighting.
c) They ain't frightened of nuthin' unlike those European surrender monkeys.
11) Apple shares are
a) Cheap on many measures.
b) Like many stock markets showing a technical top and with that in mind lets put them in the dip bucket.
c) To be used as the new European Currency as they are backed by a religious belief rather than that of an unelected committee who keep breaking their own rules.
d) Will only go down if it is discovered that Apple products are made using whale fat mixed with bankers bonuses, wrapped in a nuclear weapon, Zionist, seal clubbing, child torturing slime of refined oil products (produced by melting down rainforests) and made in a secret factory run by the illuminati whose funds go to make GM crops.
12) The trend is your friend until.
a) It ends.
b) It dips through your stop-loss and then reverses back in the original direction sticking 2 fingers up as it leaves you behind.
c) Your wife calls and says that she's met this nice new trend and would like you to move out but as the trend hasn't a job you will have to keep paying.
13) The best burgers in London are from
c) Don't be daft with all your fancy food, its the BK Whopper or a McTasty.
TMM apologise for the lack of posts but there really has been little to say. We wish you a lovely weekend and may the sun dapple the woods you cycle in.