Monday, May 14, 2012
OK, Greece. Are they really really clever or just so completely and utterly stupid they shouldn't be trusted with a pair of blunt scissors, even the rounded end ones? We still hang on to the hope that there isn't a coalition government and the population are forced back to the ballot box with a clear instruction that what they are voting for is euro membership or not.
As for today we feel déjà vu and would suggest that the market is really looking for some sort of policy response or else they will just keep drilling prices. The Eurostriches are once again silent on coordinated policy, but this time rather than it due to their heads being buried in the sand, they are too busy with their own internal fights
However,despite the new levels of euro panic TMM think they have seen this sort of day before and can sum it up as "The 19 stages of a Eurogeddon Monday". All times are London based.
1) Expect resolution on a European issue over the weekend.
2) On Sunday it becomes apparent there is no resolution.
3) Twitterati and blogosphere go into overdrive
4) Asia opens and sells hard.
5) Media quote twitterati and the Asian price falls.
6) 08.00 Europe, now whipped up, opens and sells hard.
7) 08.30 Media and commentaries quote the resultant price moves including lots of " haven't seen this price since the last time"
8) 09.00 More Selling.
9) 09.30 Having sold, the market takes a pause to notice that there hasn't actually been any new news.
10) 10.00 All talk is to the downside with more gloom recycling but no further price response.
11) 11.15 US wakes up to a deluge of commentary saying SELL and to seeing prices lower.
12) 12.00 US sells and prices fall again
13) 12.30 Models join in and sell.
14) 13.00 Europe relieved to see US commenters also saying the markets are a sell.
15) 14.30 US Equity markets open and fall hard to the "toldjaso" relief of all those who have sold in the last 24hrs.
16) 15.00 US notice that there is actually no new news and some shorts from Sunday Asia open are covered.
17) 15.15 Momentum picks up to the upside accompanied by "just a short term bounce, sell the rally" comments.
18) 16.00 Small positive comment from a Eurocrat/Greek and markets recover further into European close.
19) Tuesday 10am - "Well it IS going to happen one day" - short term positions closed or moved to long term book as it morphs into a "Turnaround Tuesday".
Team Macro Man are really hoping the Eurocrats or Greece can do a bit of a "Manchester City" with a final seconds redemption, but it does feel today as though a lot of the crowd have already left the stadium.